Timothy Spangler has been active in Republican Party politics for a number of years. He currently chairs the UK Chapter of Republicans Abroad. He has also been active in the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign. He speaks and writes regularly on political issues, and appears regularly on BBC, Sky News and CNN.
He opened his speech by explaining that his aim in Republicans Abroad is to provide information overseas. He considers the role of overseas voters as quite important and would like to explain what the election meant and the impact on the Bush administration.
Foreign policy played an atypically large role in the 2004 presidential campaign and, ultimately, in the decision of voters on 2nd November. Although it had not been predicted in some quarters (including across the non-US media) the Republican victory – unprecendented in modern elections – was clear and convincing across many measures for the following reasons:
- President Bush received millions more votes than his opponent
- He is the largest vote winner in American history (surpassing that Republican icon Ronald Reagan – perhaps a fitting symbol of the passing of a torch in the year President Reagan died)
- The Republican Party gained seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, including overseeing the defeat of Senate majority leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota.
The level of voter turnout was at record levels and was not the key to an expected Democratic victory. Instead, supporters of the President were effectively identified and motivated and mobilised across the country.
Americans are concerned about foreign policy and about the state of world affairs – and their country’s place in that world. The results show that the President has a broad support for his general approach to foreign policy, and a strong conviction that he is in fact a force for long-term stability. A majority of American voters said they feel safer under his leadership in this post-September 11th.
As many commentators have noted, if the polls had been widened to include members of the international community, the President would not have been returned to office. Mistrust of the President and his policies exists across Europe, Asia and elsewhere: many view his approach to the challenges of extremist terror as narrow-minded and too simplistic; they do not find his belief in ‘good’ and ‘evil’ an effective paradigm.
Many in the international community are uneasy about the President’s willingness to seek to rework the global order to meet the needs of the present and future – rather than accepting a status quo designed for a post-Second World War environment long past. Americans realise that multilateral institutions are the works of human hands, and as such are subject to flaws and obsolescence as any other mortal endeavour.
Two views have arisen among commentators and pundits about how a second Bush administration will approach foreign policy over the next four years:
- many hope that the Administration will be more deferential to non-US sensitivities
- on the other hand, some are concerned that the Administration will be emboldened in its so-called ‘unilateralist’ stances
He underlines how America was scarred by the events on September 11th 2001. The President’s immediate and firm response to the threats posed to the country, and the world, are believed to have secured him the strong and lasting support of American voters. Voters recognised the following fundamental truths which will no doubt continue to be reflected in the new Administration:
- words without actions are meaningless
- moral values are not out of place in understanding and combating the threats posed to the US
The President has said that he believes that he has earned political capital I the results of the Election and he intends to use that in the coming months and years ahead.
Timothy Spangler foresees that over the next few years the President’s fundamental approach of “Do what you say” will lead to significant improvement in a number of troublespots around the globe.
There will certainly be a change at the State Department with Dr Condoleezza Rice nominated as Colin Powell’s successor. Dr Rice is already known to all Americans and to much of the world. The Secretary of State is America’s face to the world and in Dr Rice, the world will see the strength, the grace and the decency of our country. She will take over from the Secretary Powell left off. He has been one of the most effective and admired diplomats in America’s history. He has been successful in rallying the world in a global war; resolving dangerous regional conflicts; and confronting the desperate challenges of hunger, poverty and disease.
Dr Rice is taking office at a critical time. The United States is a nation at war. America is a) leading a coalition against a determined enemy b) putting in place new structures and institutions to confront outlaw regimes, to oppose proliferation of dangerous weapons and materials, and to break up terror networks c) undertaking a great calling of history to aid the forces of reform and freedom in the broader Middle East so that the region can grow in hope, instead of growing in anger, and d) pursuing a positive direction to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, and approach that honours the peaceful aspirations of the Palestinian people through a democratic state, and an approach that will ensure the security of Israel. The President has committed himself to a Palestinian state.
Dr Rice is considered to be the right person for that challenge. There will be choppy water ahead with difficult times economically. However, she’s a recognised expert in international affairs, a distinguished academic, and a public servant with years of White House experience - for the record, Britain is the US’s greatest and longest standing ally. But above all, Dr Rice has a deep, abiding belief in the value and power of liberty.
This belief is one she shared with the President. Perhaps more importantly she shares this with the majority of Americans, be they Republicans or Democrats.
Sir Ronald Halstead thanked Timothy Spangler for his eloquent speech and many questions followed.